With daily headlines in the major newspapers alternating between a confirmed
decline in the state market followed by statistics reporting a rise in median
prices in many cities in the Bay Area, one can’t help but wonder what really
is going on? Is it is good time to buy? Is it a good time to sell?

Like the famous saying from former Speaker of the House Tip O’Neil: “all
politics is local” , the truth about the real estate market is very
neighborhood specific. Even city-wide statistics don’t tell a very accurate
picture. It’s the neighborhood. Sometimes even the block.

For instance, we just had 673 Alcatraz Ave, near Shattuck Ave, on the
Oakland/Berkeley border, listed for sale. It was a beautiful house, with a
detached inlaw cottage, all in excellent condition. Our asking price was
$629,000, which would have been low except for the busy street. At the same
time, just 2 blocks away, we also had 473 North St on the market. This was a
smaller, not nearly as charming a house, but located on the end of a
cul-de-sac. The asking price was $679,000.

Both homes received multiple offers. Alcatraz, on the busy street, received 8
offers, and ended up selling more than a $100,000 over its asking. Quiet North
St received only 3 offers and sold for only slightly more than asking.

Now move a short distance away to the North Oakland/Emeryville border. Here,
we have a cute 2Br/1Ba on the market for $469,000 (993 Arlington Ave). On our
2^nd Sunday open house, not a single person came by! As of this
writing, its been on the market almost 4 weeks without a single offer. The
asking price was based on numerous recent sales “comps”, even adjusted
downward for today’s slower market. But I guess I didn’t get it right. This is
reinforced by the fact that a house just 2 blocks away, on Aileen St, of
similar size and condition, but asking only $429,000 went “pending sale” right
away.

In Rockridge proper (zipcode 94618), since January 1, 07, there were only 4
sales of 2Br/1Ba homes, and only one of them sold for over its asking price
($719,000 to $750,000). The other three sold for list or slightly under.

In North Oakland (94609), there were just 6 sales of 2Br/1Ba’s. The prices
overall are lower than Rockridge, as one would expect. But 4 of the 6 sold for
slightly over asking. The price range was $441,000 to $661,000.

  View Data on all sales in these two zipcodes for the 1^st Quarter of 2007 here: